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IE3 Premium Efficiency Revenues Accelerating Rapidly, Set to Overtake IE1 in 2018

IE3超高效電機(jī)增長迅速，將在2018年超越IE1

Often times, government regulations rarely translate into tremendous revenue growth in a global market however, this is not the case in the integral horsepower low voltage (LV) motor market where revenues for IE3 Premium Efficiency (and the equivalent NEMA Premium?) are on course to almost double by 2018 to over $8,000 million globally. Major LV motor markets are becoming more and more regulated towards IE2 and IE3 motors, as this dynamic has signaled that the eminent decline of the lowest efficiency class motor market, IE1, has begun in earnest.

很多時(shí)候，在一個(gè)全球性的市場(chǎng)，政府法規(guī)很少轉(zhuǎn)化為巨大的收入增長，但在整數(shù)馬力低壓電機(jī)市場(chǎng)，情況并非如此，IE3超高效（相當(dāng)于NEMA Premium）電機(jī)的全球營收到2018年將超過80億美元，幾乎翻一倍。低壓電機(jī)的主要市場(chǎng)正變得越來越規(guī)范，以IE2和IE3電機(jī)為主，這一動(dòng)態(tài)也暗示著，最低能效等級(jí)的IE1電機(jī)市場(chǎng)，開始正式大幅下降。

The IE1 market is currently the largest regulated LV motor market in the world in terms of revenues and units, with the majority concentrated in the Asia Pacific, the Russian Federation & CIS, and smaller markets where no energy efficiency regulations exist. Major regions have been shifting out of the IE1 market since the US began in 2002, and this has catalyzed revenue growth in the form of more expensive IE2 and IE3 LV motors being sold than in previous years. Typically, a regional transition to the next higher efficiency class of LV motor can take six years or more after the official start date has been announced, with the peak of the transition occurring in year three or four. Such is the case with the IE3 market, as the US and Canada are currently phasing out IE2 and IE1 motors, with the European Union, Japan and China following suit in 2015, late 2016, and 2017, respectively. Analyst Mark Meza states “IE3 revenues have been growing at 3-digit rates since 2010, as the current IE3 markets are fortuitously located in regional markets that have been quick to recover from the global recession, and have not experienced further economic difficulties as seen in the IE2 markets of the European Union and Brazil over the past few years.”

就營收和數(shù)量而言，IE1是目前全球最大的低壓調(diào)節(jié)電機(jī)市場(chǎng)，大部分集中在亞太、俄羅斯聯(lián)邦和獨(dú)聯(lián)體等地區(qū)，以及沒有能效法規(guī)監(jiān)管的小型市場(chǎng)。隨著美國從2002年開始主要區(qū)域逐漸擺脫IE1市場(chǎng)，銷售的是相比前幾年更昂貴的IE2和IE3 低壓電機(jī)，從而推動(dòng)了營收的增長。通常情況下，一個(gè)地區(qū)要升級(jí)到更高能效等級(jí)的低壓電機(jī)，從正式開始日期算起，可能需要6年以上的時(shí)間，其中第3年或第4年是升級(jí)的高峰。IE3市場(chǎng)就是這樣的情況，美國和加拿大目前正在逐步淘汰IE2和IE1電機(jī)，歐盟、日本和中國爭相效仿，將分別在2015年、2016年末和2017年淘汰。分析師Mark Meza指出，“自2010年以來，IE3收入取得了3位數(shù)的增長率，因?yàn)槟壳癐E3市場(chǎng)有的處于已迅速從全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中復(fù)蘇的地區(qū)市場(chǎng)，而且也沒有經(jīng)歷過比IE2市場(chǎng)過去幾年里在歐盟和巴西所經(jīng)歷過的更大的經(jīng)濟(jì)困難。”

In 2017, the rapidly ascending IE3 market is forecast to be almost equal in revenues to the outgoing IE1 market. At this point in time, IHS predicts that the two motor segments will be headed in opposite directions. It is interesting to note that while revenues for IE3 will overtake IE1 revenues in 2017, units for IE1 are still predicted to be double the units in the IE3 market. Meza adds “From the revenue and units comparison of these two markets over time, it is clear to see the revenue-enhancing effect of energy efficiency regulations that operate independently of the market’s demand.” According to growth forecasts, high revenue growth in the IE3 market will begin to cool off significantly in North America just as it begins to heat up in the Eurozone, Japan and China barring any further major economic downturns to these newest players in the IE3 market.

到2017年，預(yù)計(jì)增長迅速的IE3電機(jī)市場(chǎng)將在銷售額方面追上逐步淘汰的IE1市場(chǎng)。在這個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)上，IHS預(yù)測(cè)，這兩個(gè)等級(jí)電機(jī)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展將背道而馳。值得注意的是，雖然IE3收入將在2017年超過IE1，但預(yù)計(jì)IE1的電機(jī)數(shù)量仍將是IE3的兩倍。Meza補(bǔ)充說：“通過比較這兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)在一段時(shí)間的銷售額和數(shù)量，可以清楚地看到能效法規(guī)對(duì)增加銷售額的作用，這一作用也獨(dú)立關(guān)系著市場(chǎng)需求。”根據(jù)增長預(yù)測(cè)，IE3市場(chǎng)的銷售額高增長將開始在北美地區(qū)顯著放緩，同時(shí)，歐元區(qū)、日本和中國，在排除了任何進(jìn)一步的重大經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退之后，這些IE3電機(jī)的最新市場(chǎng)開始升溫。